Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China
Guangjin Tian, State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University
Zhi Qiao, State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University
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Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents’ behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model) (ABM) with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Guangzhou metropolitan region. A future policy scenario analysis can help policy makers to understand the possible results. These individuals can adjust their policies and decisions according to their different objectives.
agent-based model; analytical hierarchy process; Guangzhou; policy makers; scenario analysis
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