Table 5. Transition matrices evaluating the predictions of the best models using the (A) 3000-m and (B) 500-m growth surface by the number of cells correctly classified as having growth or no growth in urban area. Correctly classified cells are in boldface, incorrecly classified cells are in normal type, and numbers in parentheses indicate percentage of cells.
(A)
| |
| |
|
m8de10 |
m11de40 |
m12de10/40 |
|
|
|
|
|
No growth |
Growth |
Total |
|
No growth |
Growth |
Total |
|
No growth |
Growth |
Total |
| |
|
Urban area in 1998 |
No growth |
264,099
(89.6) |
30,544
(10.4) |
294,643
(100) |
No growth |
271,220
(92.1) |
23,423
(7.9) |
294,643
(100) |
No growth |
270,081
(91.7) |
24,562
(8.3) |
294,643
(100) |
|
Growth |
1410
(27.7) |
3677
(72.3) |
5087
(100) |
Growth |
2129
(41.8) |
2958
(58.2) |
5087
(100) |
Growth |
1831
(36) |
3256
(64) |
5087
(100) |
|
Total |
265,509 |
34,221 |
299,730 |
Total |
273,349 |
26,381 |
299,730 |
Total |
271,912 |
27,818 |
299,730 |
|
| |
(B)
| |
| |
|
m7de5 |
m8de10 |
m12de10/40 |
|
|
|
|
|
No growth |
Growth |
Total |
|
No growth |
Growth |
Total |
|
No growth |
Growth |
Total |
|
|
Urban area in 1998 |
No growth |
273,746
(92.9) |
20,897
(7.1) |
294,643
(100) |
No growth |
262,648
(89.1) |
31,995
(10.9) |
294,643
(100) |
No growth |
263,353
(89.4) |
31,290
(10.6) |
294,643
(100) |
|
Growth |
2467
(48.5) |
2620
(51.5) |
5087
(100) |
Growth |
1882
(37) |
3205
(63) |
5087
(100) |
Growth |
2229
(43.8) |
2858
(56.2) |
5087
(100) |
|
Total |
276,213 |
23,517 |
299,730 |
Total |
264,530 |
35,200 |
299,730 |
Total |
265,582 |
34,148 |
299,730 |
|
| |
Note: These data allow the calculation of the total percentage of correctly classified cells. For example, according to model m8 de10 for the 3000-m growth surface, of the total of 299,730 cells, 264,099 cells and 3677 cells were correctly predicted to have no growth and growth, respectively, yielding a total of 89.3% of all cells that were correctly predicted by this model.
|