Conservation Ecology: Embracing Uncertainty: The Interface of Bayesian Statistics and Cognitive Psychology: Table 3

Table 3. Classification of subjective concepts associated with probability (adapted from Teigen 1994).

Concept
Definition
Chance
"Probability" is the chance or frequency of a given outcome among all outcomes of a truly random process.
Tendency
"Probability" is the the tendency of a particular outcome to occur, or how "close" it is to occurring.
Knowledge
"Probability" is allocated among the set of known hypotheses.
Confidence
"Probability" is the the degree of belief in a particular hypothesis.
Control
"Probability" is the the degree of control over particular outcomes.
Plausibility
"Probability" is the believability, quantity, and quality of detail in a narrative or model.

Concept	Definition
*Chance*	"Probability" is the chance or frequency of a given outcome among all outcomes of a truly random process.
*Tendency*	"Probability" is the the tendency of a particular outcome to occur, or how "close" it is to occurring.
*Knowledge*	"Probability" is allocated among the set of known hypotheses.
*Confidence*	"Probability" is the the degree of belief in a particular hypothesis.
*Control*	"Probability" is the the degree of control over particular outcomes.
*Plausibility*	"Probability" is the believability, quantity, and quality of detail in a narrative or model.