Problem Analysis: Groundwater decline is a key degradation issue in the 21st century. Aquifer levels have fallen in recent decades in several major grain-producing regions of the world. This decline is popularly attributed to groundwater mining. However, significant gaps in knowledge and understanding of the processes of groundwater decline remain, and limit our identification and implementation of appropriate management actions. This thematic research program will systematically address the issue of groundwater decline in the ecoregions represented by the Punjab of India and the North China Plain.

	Scales of investigation
Examples	Spatial/Institutional	Temporal (projection in some cases)
STRATEGIC STUDIES
Pilot devolution of control for natural resource management, e.g., through environmental education, capacity-building, village government.	user group; village; ward; council; ministerial	years
Promote collective responsibility for groundwater through programs that support group-based activities and discourage private exploitation.	water supply sector	years
With user groups, NGOs, and government, apply knowledge gained in the related specific studies to develop and field-test appropriate technical, legal, financial, and institutional incentives for effective management.	user group; village; ward; council; ministerial	years
Independent monitoring and evaluation.	as above	years; decades
SPECIFIC STUDIES
Model the importance of spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and land management to the reported groundwater decline.	field, aquifer, micro-catchment, river catchment	wet year, average year, dry year, “20” year cycle of variability
Partition the decline to natural recession and human use, and partition the natural recession to deep flow, lateral flow and vegetation water use.	field, aquifer, micro-catchment, river catchment	year
Simulate the impacts of increasing population and changes in land use and climate.	user group; village; ward; council; field; aquifer; micro-catchment; river catchment	wet year, average year, dry year, “20” year cycle of variability
Cost–benefit analysis of potential macroeconomic interventions, e.g., import grain from water-rich areas to reduce need for local production.	regional; ‘global’	years; decades