Table 4. Stepwise logistic regression models (regression coefficient B) explaining the presence or absence of Capercaillie signs at individual sample plots (n = 2340) from HSI scores at various scales (HSIsu, NN-HSI year, 100-HSIyear, and 400-HSI year, AREA-HSIyear, respectively; Models 1–5) and study area (AREA; reference = Area 1). The coefficients of variation in HSI scores had been entered into Models 2–5, but showed no significant effects. In Model 6, HSI scores from all scales were considered as explanatory variables entered: (HSIsu, NN-HSIyear, 100-HSIyear, and 400-HSIyear, AREA; reference = Area 1). For all models, variables were selected by backward elimination.

 
Model (scale)
and variables
B 
1 SE 
df
Odds ratio
exp(B)
P
Change in deviance
Residual deviance
(-2log-likelihood)
 
 
1) Sample plot





689.0

     HSIsu
4.75
0.47
1
115.6
0.000
108.5

     AREA

5

0.000
37.1

Area 2
0.34
0.59

1.41


Area 3
1.18
0.40

3.26


Area 4
1.61
0.65

5.02


Area 5
0.71
0.46

2.03


Area 6
2.04
0.42

7.69


     Constant
- 6.31
0.47


0.002










2) Sample plot and 8 nearest neighbors
713.6

     NN-HSIyear
6.55
0.73
1
700.3
0.000
82.7

     AREA


5

0.000
44.1

Area 2
0.49
0.59

1.63


Area 3
1.08
0.40

2.94


Area 4
1.93
0.66

6.87


Area 5
0.72
0.46

2.05


Area 6
2.26
0.42

9.55


     Constant
- 6.92
0.53


0.000










3) 100-ha quadrat
720.9

     100-HSIyear
7.76
0.90
1
2345.1
0.000
76.7

     AREA


5

0.000
25.6

Area 2
- 0.37
0.58

0.69


Area 3
- 0.04
0.42

0.96


Area 4
1.11
0.63

3.04


Area 5
0.01
0.46

1.01


Area 6
1.18
0.42

3.27


     Constant
- 6.50
0.49


0.000










4) 400-ha quadrat
757.5

     400-HSIyear
8.91
1.40
1
7398.4
0.000
40.1

     AREA


5

0.000
26.9

Area 2
- 0.30
0.58

0.74


Area 3
- 0.06
0.43

0.95


Area 4
1.25
0.65

3.50


Area 5
0.15
0.45

1.16


Area 6
1.18
0.42

3.27


     Constant
- 6.85
0.62


0.000










5) 2000-ha study area
828.2

     AREA-HSIyear
4.79
1.49
1
119.8
0.001
10.4

     Constant
- 4.84
0.57


0.008










6) All scales
671.6

     HSIsu
3.60
0.56
1
36.43
0.000
42.04

     NN-HSIyear
4.18
1.02
1
65.28
0.000
17.43

     AREA

5

0.000
34.33

Area 2
0.46
0.47

1.59


Area 3
0.62
0.42

1.86


Area 4
0.34
0.59

1.40


Area 5
1.89
0.42

6.60


Area 6
1.90
0.66

6.68


     Constant
- 7.30
0.55


0.001